The heat pattern that was long predicted

In today’s newsletter we look at the chance for this year being the warmest one on record. (Spoiler: It’s very likely.) You can read and share the full version of this story on Bloomberg.com. Subscribe to Bloomberg for unlimited access to climate and energy news, and to receive Bloomberg Green magazine.

By Zahra Hirji

The hottest June on record has been followed by an early July that now includes 10 of the hottest days in history. Simultaneous heat waves are suffocating the US, much of Europe and parts of Asia, while El Niño intensifies in the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic waters off Florida hit an unprecedented 90F (32.2C). It’s already enough to put 2023 on a likely trajectory to become the warmest year since record-keeping began in the 1800s. 

Since October 2019, the research nonprofit Berkeley Earth has been analyzing each month’s global temperatures and issuing predictions for the year’s ultimate rank in terms of heat. Its latest analysis, published July 11, found “a fairly high chance — above 80% at this point — that 2023 will be the warmest year on record,” says Zeke Hausfather, a Berkeley Earth climate scientist. 

Researchers will finalize annual temperature rankings in January. To date, the hottest year on record is a tie between 2016 and 2020.

For longtime climate observers, the summer’s breakneck pace of temperature records is a grim pattern long predicted, and one with little chance of breaking. “I’ve been expecting this for 20 years,” says Camille Parmesan, a professor at the National Center for Scientific Research and an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report author. “This is just going to keep happening given that we’re not reducing emissions.”

Earth has already warmed 1.2C since the preindustrial era due to growing greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. This has resulted in a clear trend: 22 of the last 23 years were the hottest ever, according to NOAA. The only way to stop this trend, climate scientists have repeatedly warned, is for people to dramatically and immediately cut their climate pollutants, mainly through ditching fossil fuels.

High among the factors pushing this year’s unparalleled heat trajectory is the aforementioned El Niño, the first in nearly four years. The Pacific basin covers one-third of the planet and is subject to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which ping-pongs the ocean’s temperatures between cold and warm phases. This year started off in the La Niña phase, officially switching to El Niño in June.

“Every time we have an El Niño event, we get a small peek into the future. This is what is going to be the new normal for the climate in 5 to 10 years if our emissions keep at current levels and don’t decrease rapidly,” Hausfather says. “So we’re going to have slightly higher than normal temperatures this year and next, but long-term climate change is going to quickly push the planet to these levels of heat all the time.”

Worsening climate change is driving up the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and this summer is no exception. Heat waves have plagued Japan, India and the US, which has also struggled with devastating flooding in the Northeast. Drought now grips Europe, following record spring heat in the Mediterranean. Canada is wrestling with out of control wildfires, which have unleashed waves of dangerous smoke on millions of people across North America.

El Niños are just another type of extreme event that have also gotten stronger in recent decades due to climate change. “Since 1950, El Niños have been significantly stronger than any time from 1400 to 1950,” Parmesan says, citing a 2021 IPCC report she helped write.

“We haven’t had an El Niño event at this level of global warming,” says Brown University’s climate scientist,  Kim Cobb. “Maybe that’s an obvious statement but I think it still needs to be said.” The implication is we don’t really know what’s in store, Cobb warns, adding that the El Niño is only just beginning “and it’s forecast to get quite a bit stronger.”

Berkeley Earth’s estimated odds for 2023 as the hottest year increased as the year went on; if the El Nino persists and intensifies, 2024 could be hotter. After January, the group noted that 2023 had a 14% chance of being the hottest year; by the end of May, it had risen to 54%. Then came a stunningly hot June. Declared the warmest on record by Berkeley Earth, the US National Centers for Environmental Information and the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, it beat out by a significant margin a previous set in 2022. 

Even more disasters are expected to plague communities as the year continues, amid an especially hot summer and fall. Or as Hausfather puts it: “A lot of bad stuff.”

On extremely hot days with sweat clinging to your skin, merely existing can feel like an endurance sport. And yet, as large parts of Southern Europe endure temperatures above 100F (38C), the roughly 165 remaining cyclists in this year’s Tour de France must do more than survive: They have to dominate in a sport where winning often means covering 100-plus mountainous miles in as little as four hours. To have any hope of winning — without succumbing to heat exhaustion — many of them have turned to wearable ice. 

US’s most crucial waterway is drying out. Water levels on the Mississippi and Ohio rivers are falling for a second straight year, raising the prospect of shipping problems along the all-important US freight routes.

Ancient Silk Road art enters a new climate era. Artwork and statues in China’s Dunhuang caves have survived sandstorms, political upheaval and tourists for more than a millennium. Now they’re up against their most unrelenting foe yet — climate change.

By Brian K. Sullivan

The brutal heat breaking records across the US Southwest and taxing power grids will push east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and Gulf of Mexico this week — putting 84 million Americans under heat warnings and advisories from California to Florida.

The heat’s focus will shift from the Southwest into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico coast, where in addition to high temperatures humidity will also play a roll making conditions feel worse, said Josh Weiss, a forecaster at the US Weather Prediction Center.

The heat index — the combination of temperatures and humidity — will reach up to 115 across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi by Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas could hit 120.

“As we head to the middle to latter part of the week we are expecting significant heat to spread all the way to the southeastern part of the US,” Weiss said. “We had some pretty significant heat in the desert southwest.’’

Heat across the southern US and northern Mexico has imperiled people throughout the region, toppled daily records, and taxed electric grids on both sides of the border. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state’s grid operator, is warning there could be increasing demand as the temperatures soar this week.

In other weather news:

Greece: A fire near Athens is threatening homes, as strong winds and high temperatures fuel the blaze. While temperatures have eased slightly in Greece, the high winds mean fires can spread quickly. The next wave of Saharan heat will raise temperatures to as high as 44C (111F) in Greece on Thursday and Friday.

Tropics: Tropical Storm Calvin is forecast to be near the Hawaiian islands late Tuesday. Further west, Typhoon Talim is set to make landfall near Zhanjiang, China later Monday. While it is passing south of Hong Kong, trading was scrapped there for the day.

East Asia: Downpours have left at least 40 people dead and nine missing in floods and landslides in South Korea, according to the interior ministry. Some 15 cities and provinces had evacuated 10,608 people from their homes while there were 631 cases of road and public facility damages as of 11 a.m. local time Monday, according to a statement on the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters website.

Canadian fires: Air quality is falling across New York and parts of the Midwest and Northeast as more smoke from Canadian wildfires swirls into the US. In New York City, air quality was moderate in parts of Brooklyn and Queens Monday morning, while conditions in Manhattan were better, according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow.gov.

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