|
By Michelle Ma
Climeworks AG has made what it says is a breakthrough that can cut the cost to remove a ton of carbon from thin air by up to 50%. While it could be a huge leap for the company and carbon removal industry writ large, the costs are still far above the industry’s benchmark for widespread adoption.
For years, researchers and founders have said $100 per ton is the key target at which using machines to capture carbon from the ambient air becomes cost-competitive. But costs remain stubbornly high and now companies are beginning to move the goalposts, which risks undercutting trust in an industry the world will almost certainly need to limit global warming.
A rendering of Climeworks’ Generation 3 direct air capture plant Image courtesy of Climeworks Photographer: Climeworks
Back in 2017, Climeworks co-Chief Executive Officer Christoph Gebald told Carbon Brief he was “very confident” the company could hit $100 per ton. Another pioneer of direct air capture, David Keith of Carbon Engineering Ltd., had also published a paper around that time proposing a pathway to get below $100.
Fast forward to today, and Climeworks co-CEO Jan Wurzbacher said such a low price would be impossible as a result of inflation. By today’s dollars, “we all agree that $100 is a big challenge,” he added.
While Climeworks says its new technology can capture carbon for $250 to $350 per ton by 2030, its current costs are “closer to $1,000 than $100,” Wurzbacher said. The latest estimates show buyers are paying an average of $715 per ton to companies like Climeworks that use machines to clean carbon from the skies using a process known as direct air capture (DAC).
In fact, since those early bold proclamations, scientists and the industry have quietly lowered their ambitions. It’s possible that companies may never reach the target cost of $100 per net metric ton of CO2 captured and stored — viewed as the holy grail for DAC technology — no matter how much the industry grows.
“It’s a fantasy,” said Howard Herzog, a senior research engineer at MIT Energy Initiative. Atmospheric carbon dioxide isn’t present in high enough concentrations to let DAC reach very low costs, he said.
The difference between $100 and $200 is small when you’re talking about one ton. But the world will likely need to remove billions of tons annually by mid-century, and doubling the cost to do so could impede governments and corporations from procuring the huge amounts of carbon removal that will likely be necessary to prevent catastrophic warming.
By lowballing costs, the industry is potentially harming its credibility, said Herzog, who pointed out that early buyers like Microsoft Inc. and Frontier are investing in DAC on the promise that it will someday be cheap. Failing to meet promised cost reductions could reduce trust in the industry and curtail investments. “I don’t think it’s good to over-promise on these things,” Herzog added.
Read more to find out what role DAC could play in protecting the climate, even if costs don’t reach $100 per ton. For unlimited access to climate and energy news and original data and graphics reporting, please subscribe.
|
